5 Global Infrastructure Projections for 2009
Happy New Year! Second, thank you for helping CG/LA
& the Global Infrastructure Leadership Forum achieve our best results ever
in 2008. Third, we look forward to an extremely strong 2009 for
infrastructure -- with the sector playing a leading, strategic role in the
are my 5 infrastructure projections for 2009:
National Infrastructure Bank.
In the US, the Obama government will create a National Infrastructure
Bank, -- this will be a sustained game changer for the US infrastructure
industry, doubling market size to $300 billion and, more importantly, creating
new markets, and new ways of thinking about mobility, inter-modality and
productivity. See: North
Global Infrastructure Spend.
Globally, In 2008 the world spent 2.2% of GDP on infrastructure, -- as a
result of already announced fiscal stimulus plans this figure will rise to
roughly 2.9% in 2009 (an additional $280+ billion); developed countries will
fare better than developing countries, achieving a nearly 1% bump in
infrastructure investment as a percentage of GDP, while developing country
infrastructure investment remains flat. See: CG/LA's
Advent of New Infrastructure Model.
A new infrastructure finance model will rapidly emerge, replacing the
privatization model that died a decade ago, with robust public sector
participation, lead by catalytic private firms that put much more of their
balance sheets at risk (and, indeed, develop balance sheets that can leverage
private financing). See: Leadership
Forum events for 2009.
New Model in the US.
In the US, this model will increasingly take cues from the Spanish model -
including a series of roll-ups, the marriage of E&C firms with financial
players, and the creation of an infrastructure bond market pegged to project
rates of return (replacing the old model will increase the investment capacity
of the public sector by as much as 300%). Mark
your calendars for the North American Leadership Forum, September 23-24, in New
Leadership/Strategic Infrastructure. After a decade of anemic finance-led
infrastructure performance we look forward to a re-balancing in 2009, whereby
engineers and the engineering mindset (productivity IRR's rather than financial
IRR's - thinking in 20-30 year strategic terms) play their proper role in
project concept and design creation. Mark
your calendars for the 3rd Annual Infrastructure Leadership Forum
9 - 11, 2009
are simple enough projections, tracing-out challenges, and aspirations -- and
recognizing the leadership role of the infrastructure sector in 2009, both to
protect our real economies from the worst effects of the financial crisis, and
to create a new path for economic growth and opportunity.
Please send me your
projections by January 16th and I will share these with the nearly 100,000
infrastructure professionals in CG/LA's global data base on January 20th, 2009.
Happy New Year -- we look
forward to working with you in 2009, to helping you, your companies and your
countries realize your dream of
creating a world that works for all of