The Distributed Energy Blogs

Moore's Law applies to computing but not to energy any more than it applies to the growth of children. It only takes a couple of atoms to make a switch (transistor). Going smaller, it may take only a couple of electron spin changes to effect the same logic as a couple of atoms. During the Manhattan Project, it required a vacuum tube (with its required cooling and power sources) to do the job of a transistor. Twenty years later, smaller and cooler running transistors did the job on Apollo. Today, transistors on computer chips are millions of times smaller than they were on Apollo. We can go down in size a million or billion times more as we progress to electron spin computers. Size reduction brings material reduction and cost reduction. In solar energy, the resource is 1000 watts per square meter of solar collector in the direct beam of the sun. It was that during Apollo and and is that now. During Apollo, terrestrial solar cells were 10% efficient. Now they are 20% efficient. The Laws of Thermodynamics prevent reaching near 100%, but if they could reach 100%, that is only five times the current capability. The seven times of Moore is out of the question with the solar resource. Material discoveries and improvements will reduce the cost more, but not likely at the Moore rate. Solar energy costs about $10 per watt installed. In the 1980's, when oil was $20 per barrel, solar cost closer to $20 per installed watt. It was thought that there would be parity when solar cost $5 per watt and oil cost $40 per barrel. Well, a couple of months ago, solar cost $10 per watt and oil was $150 per barrel. There was not a headlong rush to solar. Oil is free. There are fixed cost associated with extracting, transporting, and refining, but the actual cost is what the market will bear. Now oil is $60 per barrel. What next? Over the past three months we have been treated to a show of the free market effect on oil. When the US consumption was high, the cost of gasoline approached $5 per gallon. Then the world economy cracked. Suddenly driving and flying became unnecessary discretionary luxuries. The (market-driven) price of oil plummeted. Oil selling countries in the Middle East need oil income to keep their governments and societies afloat, they have no other source as large. With lower demand, they are forced to lower prices and sell more. In addition, they will have to cut down on their own discretionary funding. Giving arms to terrorists is discretionary to some extent. Insofar as it is, there will be a reduction in war and violence in the Middle East, no matter who is president. But politics and war is a digression. Will people start flying more, driving more and returning to SUVs? How fast they do will drive the rebound of prices. If a sliding tax is implemented to keep the cost of oil at $160 per barrel to consumers, with the tax going to purchase solar power for all government buildings, there will be a great stimulation of our economy, a great reduction of money leaving the country, and a long term lowering of of oil prices, helping non oil producing developing countries to rise from poverty. So forget Moore's Law and examine the ramifications of the Law of Supply and Demand!